Watching all 23 Marvel Cinematic Universe movies in timeline order

My sons have been fans of the Marvel superhero movies for most of their lives and insisted I watch Marvel’s latest offering, WandaVision, a nine part TV series released weekly on Disney+ from January15th to March 5th this year.  When we got past the first two episodes, I was hooked. But the boys needed to explain quite a few of the characters and Easter Eggs to me and I realized my knowledge of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) was quite inadequate.

In just over eleven years since Iron Man was released in 2008, Marvel has released 23 movies that are all part of the same universe, the MCU. I saw quite a few of these in cinemas when first released or later on TV, but not all of them. So I decided to watch all 23 in timeline order, the order in which their events occurred in the MCU. WandaVision and the currently running Disney+ series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier are also part of the MCU, as is Black Widow due to be released in May. but I restricted my timeline viewing to the 23 movies in the following Table that were released before this year.

After 23 movies, Marvel officially concluded what it calls its third phase of the MCU with Spider-Man: Far From Home. This MCU series was the highest grossing film franchise in the world as of November 2020, with total worldwide box office revenue of 22.6 billion U.S. dollars. The average revenue per film was just under 1 billion US dollars and the highest earning film was Avengers: Endgame at 2.8 billion U.S. dollars.Along the way, the MCU has far surpassed other major franchises like Harry Potter and the Lord of the Rings/Hobbit series in terms of box office numbers.

Over the last month, I have watched or rewatched all 23 of the MCU movies in timeline order and thoroughly enjoyed most of them. While almost all the movies work on their own, one of the joys of the MCU timeline viewing is how individual superheroes introduced in earlier movies are brought together in subsequent movies, teaming up, interacting, and at times in conflict with each other.  Understanding the back stories and prior history of major and minor characters greatly enriched my enjoyment of the movies, and I realized that much of this history and interconnectedness went completely over my head when I first watched various movies, out of order to varying degrees. Some of my previous rankings of the movies (such as Age of Ultron– which I strongly disliked on first viewing) changed dramatically as a result of the timeline order viewing. If you have watched some or even all of the MCU movies as they came out, or at random as they were replayed on TV, I highly recommend watching them again in timeline order.

I gave each movie a score after I watched it, and occasionally reviewed and revised scores as I viewed more movies. When I finished all 23, I sorted these to rank them from worst to best. “Worst” is a relative term; there really aren’t any MCU movies that are truly bad films, but there are some weaker entries. I looked at Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB rankings for the MCU movies and discovered that my rankings for some are very different. That got me interested in how much variation there was between different movie review sites.

I compiled average viewers scores from Rotten Tomatoes, IMDB and Metacritic and average critics scores from Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic, rescaled them all on a 0-100 scale and calculated overall critic and viewer averages. There were two movies where the viewer average was 11 points higher than the critic average; Avengers: Infinity War and Thor:the dark world. There were also two movies where the viewer average score was more than 20 points lower than the critic average: Black Panther and Captain Marvel. I strongly suspect the latter two differences were due to racism and sexism respectively.  The linear regression line on the plot below is calculated excluding these four movies and corresponds to a correlation of 85% between viewers and critics. I also noted that the Rotten Tomatoes scores for both viewers and critics were systematically higher than those from the others sites. It has also been noted elsewhere that the Rotten Tomatoes scores deviate much more from a normal distribution than those for the other review sites.

I decided to take a wider sample of rankings of the 23 MCU movies and used a very scientific sampling approach (Google) to identify 23 rankings of the 23 movies of the MCU. This included the 2 critics averages mentioned above, 4 viewer averages based on large samples, two box office based rankings, 7 rankings based on an average of the rankings of a group of writers, and 8 rankings by individual writers or bloggers. See Annex Table at the bottom of this post for details.

For each movie, I then calculated the median rank and the 25th and 75th percentile ranks of all the rankings. In calculating these percentiles, I gave rankings by individuals a weight of 1, those by writers groups a rank of 2, and those which were averages for large groups of critics, viewers, or box office takings I gave a higher weight of 3. The following figure compares my ranking of the 23 MCU movies with the median rankings.

As you can see, my rankings are very different to the median of the sample of rankings I analysed. And here’s the deal — my rankings are completely accurate and 100% correct. Art is subjective and your opinions are valid, but if you disagree with my rankings you’re wrong! So now you know which are the best movies!

But I was curious whether some of my more extremely different rankings fell outside the ranges of my sample of 23 rankings. So I plotted the 25th to 27th percentile range for each movie as a box, with the middle bar showing the median. Individual rankings that fell outside this range are plotted as blue dots and my rankings as red diamonds.

After extensive discussion with my sons, and being unable to convince them of the correct appreciation of the MCU movies, I understand why my rankings for some movies fall outside the range of sampled rankings. Some of my criteria and the weights I give them are quite idiosyncratic and likely quite different to most peoples’. In my next post, I will very briefly comment on each movie and why I gave it the ranking I did.

ANNEX TABLE: RANKINGS OF THE 23 MCU MOVIES ANALYSED ABOVE

  1. CRITICS

Rotten Tomatoes Critics

Metacritic Critics

  • VIEWERS

Rotten Tomatoes Viewers

IMBD Viewers

Metacritic Viewers

Inverse (2020). Every Marvel Movie ranked by over 6,000 Inverse readers.

  • BOX OFFICE +

Forbes (Box Office rankings) Travis Bean (2020). All 24 Marvel Cinematic Universe Films Ranked At The Box Office—Including ‘Black Widow’

Time (2019) We Ranked Every Single Marvel Cinematic Universe Movie

  • WRITERS

Wired (2019). The best Marvel movies, ranked from worst to best

Clarisse Loughrey and Jack Shepherd (2021). Marvel Cinematic Universe: Every film to date ranked, from worst to best

 Ben Allen, Thomas Barrie, Stuart McGurk (2021) Every Marvel Cinematic Universe movie (and TV show), ranked

Vox (2019) From Iron Man to Spider-Man: Far From Home: all 23 Marvel movies, ranked

Techradar (2021) Iron Man, Black Panther, Captain America and 20 more: the MCU movies ranked

GamesRadar (2020) Best Marvel movies – ranked! From Avengers: Endgame to Iron Man

Entertainment Weekly (2019) All the Marvel Cinematic Universe movies, ranked

  • INDIVIDUALS

Collider (2020). Marvel Movies Ranked: All 23 MCU Movies from Worst to Best

Jefferson Viet-Anh Day (2020) Marvel Movies, Ranked

Esquire

Ben Taylor

Anthony Broome (2020) The definitive (re)ranking of all 23 Marvel Cinematic Universe films

Toren Kneedler (2020)  ALL 23 MCU MOVIES RANKED FROM WORST TO BEST

Screenrant (2019) Every Marvel Cinematic Universe Movie, Ranked Worst To Best (Including Far From Home)

Rory Cashin (2020) Ranking all 23 of the Marvel movies from worst to best, including Spider-Man: Far From Home

Psychedelics and the health risks of drugs, alcohol and tobacco

In the last decade or so, there has been a renaissance of interest in the therapeutic potential of psychedelics. While natural psychedelic substances have been used by humans for many thousands of years, psychedelics had a massive cultural impact on the West in the 1950s and 1960s. Albert Hoffman, a research scientist working for the Swiss pharmaceutical company Sandoz, accidentally invented LSD (lysergic acid diethylamide) in 1938 and discovered its psychedelic properties five years later. In 1955, a New York banker named Gordon Wasson sampled the psilocybe (magic) mushroom in Mexico and published an article on his experience in Life magazine.

Scientists discovered the role of neurotransmitters in the brain in the 1950s, and psychedelics inspired scientists to search for the neurochemical origins of mental disorders previously thought to be psychological. Psychedelics were also used in psychotherapy to treat various disorders, including alcoholism, anxiety and depression, with some promising results, although these studies generally did not reach modern standards of research design.

However, psychedelics were also embraced by the counterculture and became linked in the mind of authorities with youth counterculture and the anti-Vietnam war protests. By the end of the 1960s, most Western governments had outlawed and forced underground the psychedelic drugs which had been legal in most places previously, and also shut down all scientific research.

In the 1990s small groups of scientists managed to start conducting various trials of the therapeutic uses of psychedelics and this has led to the so-called psychedelic “renaissance” in which larger well-designed trials of psychedelic use for treating a range of mental disorders are being carried out by research groups at institutions such as Imperial College London, Johns Hopkins University and New York University. Just today, it was announced that the Australian government will be providing $15 million funding for clinical trials into the use of psilocybin and other psychedelics for the treatment of mental illnesses, including depression and PTSD. Michael Pollan’s book How to Change Your Mind gives an excellent account of the history of psychedelics, both above ground and underground, and the psychedelic renaissance, and was a best seller. See also this article by Michael Pollan on the “Psychedelic Renaissance”.

As part of my work on the global burden of disease for the World Health Organization (WHO), I carried out several assessments of the direct and indirect health impacts of the use of drugs, alcohol and tobacco. I recently did an approximate update to year 2019 for deaths directly due to drug use disorders (overdoses and directly toxic effects) and indirect deaths from road injury, suicide and infectious diseases attributable to drug use. A proportion of HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C deaths can be attributed to injecting drug use with contaminated needles. The great majority of direct and indirect deaths due to drug use are due to the use of opioids, both illicit and pharmaceutical opioids. Very few deaths are associated with psychedelic drug use, but I was curious to get a ballpark estimate for comparison with other drug deaths. I will present a brief summary of the broad estimates of drug-attributable deaths, then review evidence on the likely contribution of psychedelic drugs.

I have posted elsewhere a more detailed summary of my analysis of drug, alcohol and tobacco-attributable deaths. I estimate that there were around 186,000 deaths in 2019 globally due to drug use disorders (predominantly accidental drug overdose) of which 67% were attributable to opioid use. The second largest cause of drug-attributable deaths is hepatitis C, responsible for an estimated 156,000 deaths due to infection with contaminated injecting equipment. The following two figures and table show the contributions of the various causes for five main groups of drugs. The “other” category includes deaths due to misuse of pharmaceutical drugs other than opioids and amphetamines. Overall, a little over half a million deaths were attributable to drug use in 2019.

The following table and figure include recent WHO estimates for total deaths attributable to tobacco and alcohol use (around 8 million and 3 million respectively). When poor health is taken into account as well as mortality, the overall burden of disease becomes somewhat more prominent for alcohol and drug use . Unlike tobacco which kills most people at older ages with relatively limited periods of disability, alcohol and drug use are associated with significant loss of health at younger ages, and drug deaths in particular tend to occur at younger adult ages rather than older ages (see my other post for details).

Turning now to look at mortality associated with use of psychedelics, the literature is very consistent in finding that risks of mortality are extremely low or non-existent for LSD and psilocybin. Most countries do not include a separate category for reporting deaths associated with psychedelic drugs, and many countries lump them in with opioids and other hallucinogens in a single category. For example, Switzerland reports deaths for a single category “narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens]”. This is misleading.  It is rather like reporting deaths due to HIV infections and toxoplasmosis as a single category. That would likely lead the casual reader to assume that infection with toxo virus carries significant risk of death, and on public health and that on policy grounds these two infections can be treated as a single group. Many countries criminalize psychedelic use with penalties similar to those of non-medical opioid use.

The broader category “hallucinogens” includes not only the classical psychedelics (such as LSD, mescaline, psilocybin, MDMA etc) but also dissociatives (such as Nitrous oxide, ketamine, phencyclidine (PCP)) and deliriants (such as atropine, Benadryl and zolpidem (Ambien)).

The Office for National Statistics has published numbers of deaths from selected psychedelic substances from 1993 to 2014 for England and Wales here. This actually tabulates the numbers of deaths mentioning LSD or psilocybin on the death certificate, so its not necessarily the case that these deaths are causally attributable to the psychedelic use. A significant proportion of drug deaths are associated with multiple drug use, and studies have found that in many of these the primary factor was an opioid or alcohol. So how many deaths were there that mentioned LSD or psilocybin (with or without other drugs)?  In total for the 22 year period there 4 deaths in which LSD was mentioned and 1 death where LSD and psilocybin were mentioned, none with psilocybin only. That amounts to an average of 1 death per four years, although all the deaths were actually concentrated in the first decade 1993-2003.

An Australian study by Darke et al (2019) examined all hallucinogen-related deaths in Australia in the period 2000 to 2017. There were 82 deaths, with the majority associated with phenethylamines, a group that includes amphetamines, methamphetamine and MDMA (ecstasy). No mention is made of any deaths associated with psychedelics other than MDMA, and its unlikely there were any. Another paper on MDMA-related deaths in Australia by Roxburgh et al (International Journal of Drug Policy 2020)  identified 392 deaths between 2001 and 2018 in which MDMA was mentioned. Just under half of these were attributed to multiple drug toxicity, and only 34 resulted from MDMA toxicity alone. The remaining 38% were primarily due to motor vehicle accidents with MDMA listed as a contributory factor. MDMA is the only psychedelic for which small but significant numbers of deaths do occur. These are primarily associated with hyperthermia or over-heating. This relates not only to an apparent lack of knowledge among MDMA users about appropriate fluid consumption and the need to cool off when using MDMA, but also to the risk of overdosing due to the unknown concentration of MDMA in illicit tablets. Tablet testing and education are known to substantially reduce MDMA deaths, but many governments refuse to allow tablet testing.

LSD has been associated with deaths of people jumping out windows etc in the popular mind due to scare stories published in the media in the 1960s. Closer examination of most of these incidents has not found strong evidence for a causal association (see for example here or here), though there may have been a few deaths associated with risky behaviour during the heyday of unconstrained LSD use in the 1960s.

There is some evidence that psychedelic use may trigger psychotic episodes in people at risk of schizophrenia.  A review of cannabis use concluded that it may advance the onset of schizophrenia by a year or two on average in those who were going to get it in due course, but did not cause additional cases of schizophrenia. The evidence was not considered strong enough to include schizophrenia as an adverse outcome in the WHO assessment of the attributable burden of cannabis use several years ago.

Professor David Nutt and colleagues published a study in 2007 which developed a rational scale to assess the harm of drugs of potential misuse and concluded that, among other things, psychedelics are considerably less dangerous than alcohol and are misclassified with very harmful drugs in public policy. As a result, he was sacked from his position as the UK government’s chief drug advisor. See also this interview with him. Here are two graphs from his study which summarize the relative risks of dependency, fatal overdose and physical harms for various types of drug.

The following graph compares the study’s assessments of overall harm associated with various drugs with the public perceptions of harm. There is reasonable congruence of heroin and cocaine. However, the harm associated with alcohol is drastically underestimated and that for the psychedelics drastically overestimated. The tobacco and cannabis estimates by the study seem somewhat dubious to me, they seem to overstate the cannabis harm and understate the tobacco harm (both are in the 20’s on the overall harm score) whereas tobacco kills many orders of magnitude more people than cannabis. I will have to look more closely at their methodology.

Its clear that the psychedelics don’t even register on the harm scale associated with the tobacco, alcohol, opioids, cocaine or amphetamines. And in fact, that LSD and mushrooms are two of the safest drugs and it is bizarre to class them with the illicit opioids with similar criminal penalties. MDMA and ecstasy are responsible for small numbers of deaths, and these could be largely avoided if they were legalized and pill contents regulated, or even if pill testing was widely accessible. Cannabis is not quite as harmless as the psychedelics, and does have some risk of psychological addiction, unlike them. However, it also is much less harmful than other legal drugs such as tobacco and alcohol. And for many of these drugs, the harms associated with use are substantially lower than the harms associated with criminalization, which range from large scale incarceration and subsequent family destruction and impoverishment, to the corruption of police and public officials, and the subsidizing and encouragement of organized crime.

Looking back on 34 years in the martial arts

As a student at the University of Sydney in the early 1970s, I became interested in Zen Buddhism through the writings of Alan Watts and others, but the concept of actual “practice” was completely foreign to me. Then I picked up a second-hand copy of Zen Combat by Jay Gluck (Ballantine 1962) and was absolutely fascinated by its survey of Japanese martial arts and the role of Zen in them. Bruce Lee also sparked a huge surge of Western interest in the Asian martial arts with his 1984 film Enter the Dragon.  The idea of practicing a martial art was something I could relate to, and in 1974 I enrolled in a lunch-time karate class at the University during my 4th year Physics Honors Year. I was so enthusiastic about karate that I remember being puzzled why others were not joining once they knew about the availability of classes. Over the next two or three years I trained in several karate styles including Goju Ryu, Dioshin Lyanbukan and Kei Shin Kan.

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Revisiting The Hobbit movie (yes – as one movie not three)

Having recently re-read The Lord of the Rings trilogy (see my earlier post) and realizing that Peter Jackson had changed more in the movie versions than I had realized, I decided to rewatch the three Lord of the Rings (LOTR) movies for the third time, but this time in the Extended Edition, which I’ve never seen. I purchased a copy of that, which has just arrived. But I have been pondering whether to watch the Hobbit movies before watching LOTR.  I really disliked Peter Jackson’s padding out the story with made-up elements that were not in the book, and spinning it out to three overblown movies. There were some aspects I enjoyed, but I just could not bring myself to watch them again, let alone in the extended editions.

Then I stumbled across a “fan edit” of the Hobbit movies to make a single movie (of length just under 4 hours) which is reasonable faithful to the book, removes excess material and the more ridiculous action sequences. This fan edit, called “The Hobbit – The Cardinal Cut” is described here and can be downloaded or watched on Youtube.

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My paternal ancestors’ European journey – from the Caspian Steppes to Celtiberia

In a previous post, I used an analysis of my Y chromosome DNA to trace the journey of my paternal ancestors from Y-chromosomal Adam, who lived in West Africa around 275,000 years ago (275 kya), to the founder of the R1b sub-haplogroup R-L23, who was born on the Caspian around 4,400 BC (6.4 kya). In this post, I continue my paternal ancestral journey to the most recently identified haplogroup founder: a Celtiberian living in what is now Portugal around 510 BCE. The sequence of Y SNPs defining my haplotree are shown in the following map. It summarizes this journey from R-L23 (4,400 BCE) to the most recent haplogroup founder (510 BCE), and continues on from the map published in the previous post.

There is an immense amount of recent research on European Bronze Age genetics and migrations and a very considerable unfinished debate on how to interpret the evidence. New evidence is being published almost weekly, as increasing numbers of ancient European remains are analysed and Y haplogroup identified. So this post will only aim to describe the big picture as best I can summarize it, and details and perhaps even some of the big picture will likely change in the future.

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How long ago were the events of The Lord of the Rings?

As I discussed in my previous post, Tolkien set out to create a mythology for the English in the Lord of the Rings (LOTR), the Silmarillion and related writings on Middle-earth. He presented himself not as the author of LOTR, but as the translator of various histories written by Bilbo, Frodo and others in the Third and Fourth Age of Middle-earth. This makes Tolkien quite unusual among modern writers of fantasy in presenting it as set in the real work but in an imagined prehistory. What happened in that period before the Earth’s actual recorded history is otherwise remembered down through the generations as folk myths and legends, especially among the Old English. Tolkien’s life work was an attempt to reconstruct our prehistory, and more specifically the prehistory of the English. Critics Lee and Solopova commented that “Only by understanding this can we fully realize the true scale of his project and comprehend how enormous his achievement was” [1].

Tolkien described the region in which the Hobbits lived as “the North-West of the Old World, east of the Sea” in LOTR, ie. essentially Europe (including Britain). However, as he noted in a letter [2], the geographies do not match, and he did not consciously make them match when he was writing. In another letter [3] he became much more specific, saying “If Hobbiton and Rivendell are taken (as intended) to be at about the latitude of Oxford, then Minas Tirith, 600 miles south, is at about the latitude of Florence. The Mouths of Anduin and the ancient city of Pelargir are at about the latitude of ancient Troy.” In the Prologue to LOTR, Tolkien also notes that “Those days, the Third Age of Middle-earth, are now long past, and the shape of all lands has been changed…”

Fascinated by the detailed chronologies and calendars set out in the Appendices to LOTR and elsewhere, I have naturally wondered how long ago from now the events of LOTR took place. About 15 years ago, I came across an article in the Journal of the Tolkien Society [4¡ which deduced that the Fourth Age began on Wednesday 18 March 3,102 BCE.  The events of LOTR took place during the preceding year.  Despite the bizarre exactness of this, I was quite impressed by the argument, which I summarize here briefly.

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On re-reading the Lord of the Rings 50 years later

My first encounter with Middle Earth was when I came across The Hobbit in my first year of high school. The Hobbit gave me the same sense of the numinous and of “Northerness” as earlier had C.S. Lewis’s Chronicles of Narnia. I had borrowed it from the local library, did not remember the name of the author and only several years later as a teenager did I discover the Lord of the Rings (LOTR).  It was originally published in three volumes in 1954 and 1955, 18 years after the Hobbit was published in 1937. The Lord of the Rings became immensely popular in the 1960s with the publication of the Ballantine paperback editions, and in North America, the publication of the Ace pirated edition.  I first read it in 1969, when I purchased the 1968 first edition of the George Allen and Unwin one volume paperback with cover illustrations by Pauline Baynes:

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New Year skiing in the Swiss Alps

Switzerland has kept its ski resorts open while all neighbouring countries closed. Hardly surprising that 4,200 British skiers turned up for the Christmas-New Year period just after the new faster spreading covid-19 virus took British new cases through the roof at exponential speed. The Swiss then imposed a retrospective quarantine on the British visitors after they arrived, and almost all of them snuck out during the night and left. Left a lot of anti-British feeling behind.

I and my boys are of like mind that it would be madness to go to one of the major resorts like Verbier, where many British go. Likely the people there are now incubating new infections. But my neighbours packed their car and head up to Verbier today, confident the virus left with the British. I’ve spent a number of New Years at Verbier, particularly back in the noughties (2000-2009) during part of which I rented a studio apartment in Verbier so I could go up for weekends and longer holidays whenever I wanted. Here are some photos from those days.

Two parapenters fly above the mountains at Verbier

View from the top of Mont Fort (3330 m). The three peaks on the horizon from l.to.r are Dent Blanche (4356 m), Matterhorn (4478 m in niddle) and Dent d’Hérens (4171 m)

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